Friday, April 8, 2011

Just Trust Her: Waukesha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus - (R)

by KeepItReal
Thu Apr-07-11 08:02 PM

WI's Waukesha County Clerk to Keep Elections Results on Her Personal Computer

Waukesha - Waukesha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus' decision to go it alone in how she collects and maintains election results has some county officials raising a red flag about the integrity of the system.

Nickolaus said she decided to take the election data collection and storage system off the county's computer network - and keep it on stand-alone personal computers accessible only in her office - for security reasons. "What it gave me was good security of the elections from start to finish, without the ability of someone unauthorized to be involved," she said.

Nonetheless, Director of Administration Norman A. Cummings said because Nickolaus has kept them out of the loop, the county's information technology specialists have not been able to verify Nickolaus' claim that the system is secure from failure.

"How does anybody else in the county know, except for her verbal word, that there are backups, and that the software she has out there is performing as it should?" he said. "There's no way I can assure that the election system is going to be fine for the next presidential election."

http://www.bradblog.com/?p=7988

HERES MORE:

An audit of Nickolaus' handling of the 2010 election found that she needed to take steps to improve security and backup procedures, like stop sharing passwords. The audit was requested after the county's director of administration said Nickolaus had been uncooperative with attempts to have county experts review her systems and confirm backups were in place.

Nickolaus was given immunity from prosecution in a 2002 criminal investigation into illegal activity by members of the assembly Republican Caucus. She worked for 13 years as a data analyst and computer specialist for the caucus.

She resigned from her state job in 2002 just before launching her county clerk campaign.

The corruption probe took down then-Assembly Speaker Scott Jensen, a Republican; Senate Majority Leader Chuck Chvala, D-Madison; Sen. Brian Burke, D-Milwaukee, co-chairman of the powerful Joint Finance Committee; Assembly Majority Leader Steve Foti, R-Oconomowoc; and Rep. Bonnie Ladwig, R-Racine. They all reached plea deals.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42483089/ns/us_news /

(edited to add more content on her past)

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=439x838721

Robin Hood in Reverse in US: Seven Examples

Published on Thursday, April 7, 2011 by CommonDreams.org
by Bill Quigley

The rich have been getting richer and the poor and middle have been getting poorer in the US recently. Here are seven examples that show how the US is going through Robin Hood in Reverse.

Between 1948 and 1979, the richest 10 percent of families in the US claimed 33 percent of average income growth. Between 2000 and 2007, the richest 10 percent claimed a full 100 percent of average income growth in the US, according to the Economic Policy Institute.

Business taxes were cut from 46 to 34 percent 25 years ago, according to Pro Publica. But today 115 of the big 500 companies listed on Standard and Poor’s Stock Index paid federal and other taxes of less than 20 percent over the last 5 years according to David Leonhardt of the New York Times.

General Electric’s tax rate for last year was 7 percent according to Pro Publica.

The top 5 percent US households claim 63 percent of the entire country’s wealth. The bottom 80 percent hold just 13% of the growth, according to the Economic Policy Institute.

Last year, John Paulson, a hedge fund manager “earned” $4.9 billion, according to the New York Times. Ten years ago it took 25 such managers to collectively earn that much. Last year the top 25 hedge fund managers pocketed (a much better word) a total of $22 billion. It would take over 440,000 people each earning $50,000 a year to match that amount.

A federal development program intended to help poor communities, the New Market Tax Credit, instead funnels up to ten billion taxpayer dollars to big corporations like JPMorgan Chase & Co, Goldman Sachs and Prudential to build luxury hotels, office buildings and a car museum. Bloomberg Markets Magazine pointed to the Blackstone Hotel in Chicago which was renovated for $116 million. Prudential got $15.6 million in tax credit from the US Treasury for helping fund the project because the hotel was in a census zone that included two colleges which housed a lot of lower income students.

According to the Financial Times, there are now more people living in poverty in the US than at any time in the last 50 years. Foreclosure filings were nearly 4 million in 2010, up 23 percent since 2008 according to RealtyTrac.

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2011/04/07-3

Citizen Group Requests Federal Investigation In Vote Count Error

Waukesha County Clerk Admits They Accidentally Didn't Tally Votes From City of Brookfield

POSTED: 10:28 pm CDT April 7, 2011
UPDATED: 11:20 pm CDT April 7, 2011

Citizen Action of Wisconsin called for a federal investigation on Thursday night regarding Waukesha County's election vote irregularities.

The Waukesha County Clerk admitted they accidentally did not count ballots from the city of Brookfield.

More than 14,000 votes surfaced, most of them for incumbent David Prosser, giving him a significant lead in the tight race for State Supreme Court justice against challenger JoAnne Kloppenburg.

In a statement, Citizen Action of Wisconsin asked that all computer equipment, ballots and any other relevant evidence immediately be impounded.

"In the current political climate in Wisconsin, only an investigation by a U.S. Attorney can be seen by all citizens of the state as independent and above politics," said Robert Kraig, director of Citizen Action of Wisconsin.

http://www.wisn.com/news/27473900/detail.html

NC bill threatens to criminalize naturopaths, homeopaths, herbalists, midwives, aromatherapists as felons

Monday, April 04, 2011 by: Ethan A. Huff, staff writer

(NaturalNews) Alternative health practitioners in North Carolina (NC) and their patients need your help to defeat a stealth bill that flew under the radar of most everyone in the natural health community. Senate Bill 31, which clarifies the penalties for the "unauthorized practice of medicine," essentially criminalizes the practice of unlicensed forms of medicine, which includes the work of many naturopaths, homeopaths, herbalists, aromatherapists, and even some midwives in the state. The bill was adopted by a judiciary committee in early March, and it recently passed the NC Senate. Now, the NC House is set to vote on the bill tonight, and unless NC governor Bev Perdue vetoes it, the practice of natural medicine for many in NC may soon become a more severe criminal offense.

SB 31 states that anyone who practices medicine or surgery without having been first "licensed and registered to do so" will be guilty of a Class I felony. Class I felonies in NC are the least severe kinds of felonies, but they do include things like burning crosses on private or public property, and sexually exploiting children. So if passed, SB 31 will essentially make those who practice alternative medicine without an official, state-sanctioned license and permit, criminals of the likes of sexual predators and cross burners.

You can read the short bill for yourself at the following link:
http://www.ncleg.net/Sessions/2011/...

Proponents of the bill say it fixes a loophole in the current law that classifies out-of-state practitioners who practice without a license as Class I felons, while in-state practitioners who practice without a license are only guilty of a Class I misdemeanor. But what the bill actually appears to do is make it even harder for alternative practitioners who literally cannot be licensed in NC because their work is not "approved," to practice at all. After all, who is going to be willing to provide alternative medical services for consenting patients when doing so makes them a felon?

SB 31 is really just another way to target alternative practitioners and reign in the practice of medicine to only that which has been approved by the government overlords. And the timeline for defeating this bill is very short. Alternative practitioners in NC, and those who safely and successfully use their services, need your help now to successfully defeat this bill.

Citizens for Healthcare Freedom (CHF), a nonprofit health freedom organization in NC, says the bill is "not in the interest of the citizens of North Carolina" because it affects many alternative practitioners who will be put out of business if it passes. The vast majority of these practitioners have been practicing for years, and they have helped thousands of patients over the years using methods not officially sanctioned by state medical boards (http://www.ncchf.org/2011/03/29/opp...).

The NC House is set to debate and vote on SB 31 at 7:00 pm tonight. And whether or not you live in NC, this bill contributes to setting a precedent of intolerance for natural and alternative medicine, so it is important to oppose it regardless of whether or not you live in NC.

You can reach the NC House to oppose the bill by calling (919) 733-7928.

You can reach Governor Bev Perdue's Raleigh office by calling (919) 733-4240.

Remember, when contacting government officials to express your thoughts, always be respectful, but firm in your discourse. Clearly and succinctly express opposition to SB 31 on the grounds that it further erodes health freedom in NC by criminalizing those who practice alternative medicine. Also, urge support for the CHF Consumer Health Freedom Act, which establishes the freedom to practice alternative medicine without criminal penalty (http://www.ncchf.org/2011/03/29/opp...).

http://www.naturalnews.com/031953_medical_practice_licensing.html

Unnecessary Austerity, Unnecessary Shutdown

By Chuck Collins, Alison Goldberg, Scott Klinger, Sam Pizzigati

Reversing tax giveaways to the super-rich and the nation's largest corporations could raise $4 trillion within a decade and avert possible government closures.

"We're broke."

Or so claim governors and lawmakers all over the country. Our states and our nation can no longer afford, their plaint goes, the programs and services that Americans expect government to provide. We must do with less. We need "austerity."

But we're not broke. Not even close. The United States of America is awash in wealth. Our corporations are holding record trillions in cash. And overall individual wealth in the United States, the Credit Suisse Research Institute reported this past fall, has risen 23 percent since the year 2000, to $236,213 per American adult.

We have, these indicators of overall wealth suggest, survived the Great Recession quite nicely. So how can average families — and the national, state, and local governments that exist to serve them — be doing so poorly? Why do "deficits" dominate our political discourse? What explains the red-ink hurricane now pounding government budgets at every level?

This Tax Day report identifies two prime drivers behind our current budget "squeeze."

One, we have indeed become wealthier than ever. But our wealth has become incredibly more concentrated at our economic summit. U.S. income is cascading disproportionately to the top.

Two, we are taxing the dollars that go to our ever-richer rich — and the corporations they own — at levels far below the tax rates that America levied just a few decades ago. We have, in effect, shifted our tax burden off the shoulders of those most able to bear it and away from those who disproportionately benefit from government investments the most.

These two factors — more dollars at the top, significantly lower taxes on these dollars — have unleashed a fiscal nightmare. Can we wake up in time to avoid the crippling austerity that so many of our political leaders insist we must accept?

This report offers both an analysis of our current predicament and a series of proposals that can help open our eyes to a far more equitable — and brighter — future.

Key Tax Facts

* 15,753: The number of households in 1961 with $1 million in taxable income (adjusted for inflation).
* 361,000: The number of households in 2011 estimated to have $1 million in taxable income.
* 43.1: Percent of total reported income that Americans earning $1 million paid in taxes in 1961 (adjusted for 2011 dollars)
* 23.1: Percent of total reported income that Americans earning $1 million are likely to pay in taxes in 2011, estimated from latest IRS data.
* 47.4: Percent of profits corporations paid in taxes in 1961.
* 11.1: Percent of profits corporations paid in taxes in 2011.

http://www.ips-dc.org/reports/unnecessary_austerity_unnecessary_government_shutdown

JP Morgan head Jamie Dimon pockets 51% pay rise

Wall Street firm gives chief executive a $5m cash bonus and pays for family's move from Chicago

by Graeme Wearden
guardian.co.uk, Friday 8 April 2011 11.49 BST

JP Morgan chief executive Jamie Dimon
JP Morgan chief executive Jamie Dimon's remuneration package indicates Wall Street pay is returning to pre-crash levels. Photograph: Jessica Rinaldi/Reuters

Jamie Dimon, the head of JP Morgan Chase, received a pay rise of about 51% last year including a $5m (£3m) cash bonus, a move that angered campaigners for a levy on the banking industry.

Dimon's remuneration package, disclosed by the bank on Thursday night, is the latest sign that pay on Wall Street is returning to pre-crash levels as its biggest players post higher profits.

The 55-year-old chief executive was awarded stock options worth $17m and a "cash incentive" of $5m in 2010, on top of his basic salary of $1m. The previous year he had received no cash bonus and stock awards of just above $14.1m. In 2008, the year of the financial crisis and the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Dimon received just his base salary.

Dimon has run JP Morgan since December 2005. The bank fared much better than its Wall Street rivals during the financial crisis, acquiring Bear Stearns in 2007 and Washington Mutual a year later. The bank made a net profit of $17.4bn in 2010, almost 50% higher than a year ago.

David Hillman, spokesperson for the Robin Hood Tax campaign, described Dimon's pay deal as "the latest example of the bloated pay and profits of the banking sector."

"Banks that have escaped the consequences of an economic crisis they caused should be made to pay a Robin Hood Tax to help those still struggling with its effects," Hillman added.

A Robin Hood, or transactional, tax would involve a very small levy on each financial transaction conducted by a bank. Supporters say it would raise about £20bn in the UK.

Documents filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission also show JP Morgan paid Dimon $421,458 in moving expenses, $95,293 to cover "personal use of aircraft" and $45,730 for "personal use of car".

JP Morgan explained the Dimon family had moved from Chicago to New York in 2007 after their children finished high school, but only found a buyer for their old house in 2010. The moving expenses include more than $300,000 in real estate agency commission and fees, but do not cover the likely fall in the value of the house due to the slump in the US housing market.

"It is not the firm's policy to reimburse employees for losses incurred on the sale of a home in connection with a relocation and no such reimbursement is included in the amounts listed as moving expense," JP Morgan said.

The details of Dimon's pay package came just a week after it emerged that Goldman Sachs had almost doubled the pay of its CEO, Lloyd Blankfein, to $18.6m. That included a $5.4m performance-related cash bonus.



http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/apr/08/jp-morgan-head-jamie-dimon-pay/print

Kathy Nickolaus in Waukesha forgot to save? Really?

by ColdFusion04
Thu Apr 07, 2011 at 11:41 PM EDT

It was with great interest that I watched the press conference of Waukesha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus. You see, my "day job" is in the field of information technology, and I was tuned in to her every word regarding her use of Microsoft Access to tabulate the county wide vote totals.

So I decided to make a little voting database in Microsoft Access 2010 and 2007, to test her story.

Nickolaus says repeatedly that she imported the data into Access, but through a process of "human error", she "forgot to save". Then come the tears, repeatedly, throughout her presser.

Here's the problem. Microsoft Access (any version) doesn't ask you to save. When you enter data into a table, it automatically updates the underlying database. If you close the database accidentally, the data you entered (or imported, in the case of Nickolaus) remains. If you stop to take a phone call from your buddy the governor (for example), your data will still automatically save.

For further proof, I asked my 8 year old daughter to try to enter data in my little Access voting system mock up, and not save it. She couldn't do it. She tried all sorts of things, and the votes still saved.

I entered 10,000 votes for Prosser, and closed the database. No save prompt appeared. I came back in, and there were the 10,000 votes! Thanks Bill Gates! I entered 20,000 votes for Prosser, and did a hard shutdown of my computer. When I booted back up and reopened the file, the 20,000 votes were there! Thanks again Bill Gates!

Bottom line: Nickolaus is clearly lying. Not only did she insist on having her own private system based on some of the most unsecure, pedestrian computing technology available (Seriously? Access and Excel controlling such an important part of our democracy?), but she apparently assumes that nobody else has ever used Microsoft Access.

On an almost daily basis, I recommend to my business users to avoid Microsoft Access, due to the almost complete lack of security and auditing within the tool. It's good for keeping track of your grocery list, perhaps. But not an election.

It's difficult to imagine being any worse at stealing an election and lying about it. Honestly.

Update: Thanks for the rec list. It's been years since my last rec list diary. I live in Wisconsin and, as my neighbors can undoubtedly attest from my endless loud ranting, I'm not pleased this evening. It feels good to contribute something to the research.

Update 2: It was pointed out in the comments and some messages that it is possible to add validation to data submission in Access, using Visual Basic or other macros. In other words, it's possible to add a button to "save" the data. This is true, if one was concerned enough about security and accuracy to add validation that doesn't exist natively (Does Nickolaus strike you as someone overly concerned with extra security and accuracy?). However, during the press conference, Nickolaus speculates she may have inadvertently turned the macros off. If this were the case, it would have allowed the automatic saving, not the other way around. Bottom line again: Her story doesn't add up, and it doesn't pass the IT smell test.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/04/07/964645/-Kathy-Nickolaus-in-Waukesha-forgot-to-saveReally

No Evidence of Fraud, but...

by Giles Goat Boy
Thu Apr 07, 2011 at 09:11 PM EDT

I don't know if fraud was committed in Waukesha County in connection with the April 5th, 2011 election for Wisconsin Supreme Court, and I would need convincing evidence before I would believe something illegal was done.

But...

If you were to pick the one person most likely to commit election fraud in the state of Wisconsin, it would be Kathy Nickolaus, the Waukesha county clerk. She had opportunity, motive, and a history of ethical violations. According to the AP, "Nickolaus was given immunity from prosecution in a 2002 criminal investigation into illegal activity by members of the assembly Republican Caucus."

She is a former staffer for the Wisconsin Assembly Republican caucus, a donor to Republican candidates, and she is the clerk for the reddest county in Wisconsin.

She had also been warned that her secretive hoarding of information invited fraud, yet she apparently scoffed at the internal audit that was ordered by the county board recently and did not cooperate.

Aug 18, 2010 Waukesha - The County Board's Executive Committee has ordered an audit of the county clerk's election equipment and system beginning with the September primary despite several memos she sent to the committee over the weekend defending her practices and resisting the move.

County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus has maintained that as the one in charge of elections, she is responsible for the security and operation of the system. However, other county officials say they worry about the integrity of the old equipment and the system she's using and whether she has adequate backup.

County Corporation Counsel Thomas Farley told the committee Monday that as an elected official with responsibility for elections, "If she wants to keep everything secret, she probably can.

"I don't know if that's wise or what she should do, but if she wants to and the public is satisfied that that's what they want - someone who keeps everything secret - that's up to them."

If you read message boards from election night, the public was making numerous comments about the strange delays in reporting from Waukesha County. Nothing, nothing, nothing...then all of a sudden all precincts reported. This might be normal, or it might be the AP's fault, but it was noted to be odd at the time it happened, not just after the fact.

By now you've probably heard that Kathy Nickolaus, the Waukesha county clerk, somehow forgot to tell the AP about all the Supreme Court votes from Brookfield, the second largest city in Waukesha County and that her updated report to the state elections board will include votes that give David Prosser a net gain of about 7,500 votes. Those votes were supposedly on the spreadsheet that is stored on the computer that only she has access to, but she forgot to tell the AP about them.  

It was "human error" and she's "sorry" about it.

Can you sense my eyebrows being raised?

One thing I can tell you is that when "mistakes are made", the first thing that an information hoarder does is fix everything before reporting the mistake.

I think there is enough here to launch a serious investigation. Not just a recount, but a criminal investigation. The fact is many Wisconsinites will consider this fraud unless it's proven otherwise. That may not be fair, but it's a fact.

Kathy Nickolaus needs to answer a lot of questions. Her computer should have been  seized and locked away as soon as the error was reported. It should be given a thorough forensic exam. When did she realize the mistake? Did she change anything in any file after she discovered her error? Who did she tell and when? Why didn't she just tell the AP right away if it was an honest mistake? Did she have access to any of the physical records like ballots and election logs? (I presume she did, being the clerk.) Where were those documents over the last two days? Did she alter them in any way?

You get the idea.

The most important thing to do is count all the legitimate votes correctly, regardless of the outcome, but the result, even if correct, will be be forever suspect if the investigation into Kathy Nickolaus already ended with tonight's press conference. We deserve better than "Oops."

Finally, I thought this was interesting. The Waukesha GOP held an elections workshop in 2009:

Guest Speaker:  Kathy Nickolaus, Waukesha County Clerk
Our expert, Kathy Nickolaus, is the "go to" person on the subject of elections.  Don't miss this informative discussion of the Wisconsin electoral process, what works, what doesn't, and how interested citizens can become a vital part of the process!

More for your reading pleasure...

http://www.followthemoney.org/...

http://www.waukeshacounty.gov/...

Updated by Giles Goat Boy at Thu Apr 07, 2011 at 10:48 PM CDT

"Statement from JoAnne Kloppenburg campaign manager Melissa Mulliken:

"Wisconsin voters as well as the Kloppenburg for Justice Campaign deserve a full explanation of how and why these 14,000 votes from an entire City were missed. To that end, we will be filing open records requests for all relevant documentation related to the reporting of election results in Waukesha County, as well as to the discovery and reporting of the errors announced by the County. We are confident that election officials in Waukesha County will fulfill these requests as quickly as possible so that both our campaign and the people of Wisconsin can fully understand what happened and why. Just as Assistant Attorney General Kloppenburg has run to restore confidence in the court, Wisconsin residents also deserve to have full confidence in election results."

Also, John Nichols made an excellent point on the Ed Show on MSNBC. Nicolaus knew about the error Wednesday morning, but we didn't find out until Thursday after 4 p.m. when it was picked up by right-wing web sites after being tweeted by a Milwaukee right-wing radio host. Make of that what you will.

Finally, this comment was left on the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel site in a number of threads on April 6. The anonymous poster quotes the Waukesha County Executive, but I can't find any other source to verify it:

"BV Clete
Apr 06, 2011 9:05 AM
After watching Waukesha County Exec Dan Vrakas gratuitously interject to a TV reporter that he had to vote on a paperless, non-traceable touch-screen voting machine, I hope voting officials and the press investigate the voting in Vrakas' precinct and elsewhere in Waukesha County. Were non-traceable voting machines used in Grothman's district as well? These are not people worthy of our trust."
 

Updated by Giles Goat Boy at Thu Apr 07, 2011 at 10:50 PM CDT

"Statement from JoAnne Kloppenburg campaign manager Melissa Mulliken:

"Wisconsin voters as well as the Kloppenburg for Justice Campaign deserve a full explanation of how and why these 14,000 votes from an entire City were missed. To that end, we will be filing open records requests for all relevant documentation related to the reporting of election results in Waukesha County, as well as to the discovery and reporting of the errors announced by the County. We are confident that election officials in Waukesha County will fulfill these requests as quickly as possible so that both our campaign and the people of Wisconsin can fully understand what happened and why. Just as Assistant Attorney General Kloppenburg has run to restore confidence in the court, Wisconsin residents also deserve to have full confidence in election results."

Also, John Nichols made an excellent point on the Ed Show on MSNBC. Nicolaus knew about the error Wednesday morning, but we didn't find out until Thursday after 4 p.m. when it was picked up by right-wing web sites after being tweeted by a Milwaukee right-wing radio host. Make of that what you will.

Finally, this comment was left on the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel site in a number of threads on April 6. The anonymous poster quotes the Waukesha County Executive, but I can't find any other source to verify it:

"BV Clete
Apr 06, 2011 9:05 AM
After watching Waukesha County Exec Dan Vrakas gratuitously interject to a TV reporter that he had to vote on a paperless, non-traceable touch-screen voting machine, I hope voting officials and the press investigate the voting in Vrakas' precinct and elsewhere in Waukesha County. Were non-traceable voting machines used in Grothman's district as well? These are not people worthy of our trust."

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/04/07/964573/-No-Evidence-of-Fraud,-but

Why Prosser needed EXACTLY +7500 votes....

by Cieran
Thu Apr 07, 2011 at 08:06 PM EDT

In WI, a recount at state-expense is triggered if an election is within .5% if the candidate requests it, and we have a fully verifiable paper trail to audit election results. That means in this election with approximately 740k for Kloppenburg and 739k for Prosser, the vote gets recounted at state-expense if the election is within ~7400 votes.

So the last 2 days the WI-GOP has been scrambling trying to figure out how they can still get Prosser into office. What was the result of their brain-storming? Add a few extra votes in a friendly area (Waukesha), and call it a clerical error. But in order to steal the election, they NEED to be able to keep a recount from occurring, because a recount would expose their attempted fraud to the light of day.

So they couldn't just give Prosser a couple hundred to put him barely in the lead by 40. They had to give him more than 7500 in order to get above the threshold for a free recount, so that the only way for a recount to happen would be if Kloppenburg ponies up the money for a state-wide recount, which could be expensive. Granted, all of us in WI would be happy to donate to a potential recount effort if it gets to that point, but the resolve of the Kloppenburg camp remains to be seen.

When the Republicans have declared victory starting tomorrow, they will use the full power of their media empire to pressure KloJo to concede instead of paying for a recount. They'll say she's a sore loser if she pushes for a recount outside of the .5% margin. They'll say the gap is so wide that a recount couldn't possibly swing enough votes her way, so she shouldn't waste the time of election workers. They'll say she's just further trying to divide the people of WI. They will do EVERYTHING they can to make sure NO ONE checks the paper trail. Because the paper trail will be the nail in their coffin.

We must not let them succeed in this attempted fraud.

It is NOT a coincidence that Prosser didn't get +300 votes or +1000, it had to be +7500 or more in order for the fraud to work. +7400 just wouldn't have been enough.

RECOUNT WISCONSIN!

UPDATE:

Why did the GOP aim for the .5% mark?

In WI we know that an election that is within 200ish votes deserves to have a careful examination of every ballot - whichever side is ahead. We have a sense of fairness here. While technically the losing side would have to request a recount if under .5%, it's understood that no one would be accusing said candidate of having sour grapes or being a sore loser if they requested it in an election determined by ~200 votes out of 1.5 million.

But it's different when there's a 7500 vote difference, it breaks that psychological barrier that it's not close enough for a critical re-examination as the likelihood of overcoming such a deficit would be unlikely. When the candidate has to pony up their own cash because the state considers a recount of that wide of a margin to be frivolous, public opinion changes.

And you KNOW Fox News and Rush will be hammering home this meme: She's pursuing a frivolous recount and dividing the state, sour grapes, sore loser, don't be Al Gore, etc etc. The GOP is acutely aware of this psychological barrier, which is why they went for +7500 instead of +7400.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/04/07/964575/-Why-Prosser-needed-EXACTLY-+7500-votes

MAJOR UPDATE! - Analysis of the newly added Waukesha ballots

Thu Apr 07, 2011 at 6:59 PM EDT

I'm kind of skeptical about the 14,000 new votes supposedly discovered in Waukesha County today. As such, I decided to quickly do some investigation into the state of the county.

Per WisPolitics at 1:18 PM on Election Day:

"In Waukesha..."everything else doesn't seem to be that busy."

[[Deputy City Clerk]] Kozlik said final turnout should be in the 20 to 25 percent range, which is on par with other spring elections with a statewide race on the ballot.

Another source reported Waukesha turnout might be "as high as 35 percent".

Officially, turnout (pre-Brookfield) was 42% (per county site) - 110643 votes. After Brookfield, it should roughly be 47%. That's astonishingly high turnout for a spring election. The state average was 33% (Dane County - Madison which reported super-super-high turnout was 49%.) Turnout might have picked up over the afternoon/night, but that raises a major major warning bell for me. If there were so many voters, why didn't anyone see them?


MAJOR UPDATE! - Analysis of the newly added Waukesha ballots
Now, Kathy Nickolaus, the county clerk has been criticized for the poor security of her computer systems, in which election data is literally kept on her personal computer. The (pretty conservative I would assume) Waukesha County Executive Board reprimanded her for this and ordered an audit in January. Also see http://www.jsonline.com/news/w... and http://www.jsonline.com/news/w...

She was also under criminal investigation in 2002 until granted immunity related to a case (in which Prosser was also involved) where Republican legislative leaders had their staffers (paid by taxpayers) work on the campaign. Per State Senator Chris Larson, "Heard rumor the Waukesha County Clerk was also the tech point person for Republican caucus during the scandals 10 years ago."

In short, it's eminently possible that something fishy is going on. Completely possible that it's legitimate and human error, but this doesn't exactly pass the smell test with flying colors for me.

The main thing really suspicious for me is the reported 47% turnout. That's basically the same level as Dane, and we heard stories about that all day long. But Waukesha supposedly had the same level of turnout, but nobody seemed to notice it.

UPDATE 1:
The other two main conservative suburbs in Wisconsin had similar turnout
Washington reported 46.13% turnout .

Ozaukee reported 45.70% turnout

I can't find any election-day reports whatsoever as to their turnout. Compare to estimates of 20-35% in Waukesha

What I'm trying to figure out (made very hard by lack of precinct data in Waukesha - something the conservative county officials criticized her and a main reason I'm suspicious since we have nothing but the county official's word that the city of Brookfield wasn't counted before) is where exactly the 47% turnout came from. Waukesha city itself only had 31.4% (per official results)

Also, title slightly different now

Update 2:
Essentially, I'm looking for more results of voter turnout during the election and comparing to actual #s.

Appleton (Outagamie County, home of Prosser) - 15% turnout by noon, 45% estimated. Result: 41.2% actually voted

The high turnout was noted during the day

Green Bay - No firm #s, but using same standard (they had 10% at 10AM,20% at 2PM, so I'll call it 15% by noon, same as Appleton), 45% estimated. Actual result county-wide:  'More than 43%.'

High turnout also noted

In short, it does seem to me at first glance that estimates of turnout during the day were fairly accurate (if slightly exaggerated.) This only makes the Waukesha results seem even more suspicious - they estimated 20% first, with 35% at most... and then results were 47%?

UPDATE 3
City of Wausau (Marathon County): No exact predictions, but high turnout observed. Actual result: 38% county-wide, roughly 40% in city (36% in one end, 44% in the other)

Fond du Lac County -40% predicted. Actual #s: 26,121 votes from official results. Voting-age population: 72,807 -> 36% turnout

CAVEAT: This does not necessarily mean anything. I found a report of 20% turnout in Wausau and Stevens Point (both were really 40%.) But the report doesn't really cite anything and may just be based off of the 20% pre-election estimate. Also, Milwaukee City had 25% estimated vs. 38% actual.

It's possible that the Waukesha officials just picked 20% as estimated turnout since everyone in the state was saying that before.

Anyone from Waukesha here who can tell us their experiences?

Anyways, I have tons of cosmology homework to work on and one sleepless night worrying about this election is enough, so that's it for the updates.

MAJOR UPDATE - It's been reported at Dkos that Nickolaus's story is fundamentally flawed in that she claims that she forgot to save her data in Microsoft Access. However, Microsoft Access automatically saves your data, and according to some sources, it does not even have a save button as a result.

This makes me considerably much more skeptical of her story. If we assume that she's lying on her story, which appears to be the case, then right now, considering all the evidence that's come in, and trying to consider stories consistent with everything that's likely to be true, I think that there are two main possible scenarios. I would rank their likelihood as roughly 90% chance for #1, 10% chance for #2.

1. The city of Brookfield actually was left out, but County Clerk Nickolaus was dishonest over the reason. As a quite conservative and partisan election official, this is my speculation, but it is quite possible that she was paranoid over possible Democratic voter fraud, and hence held back a few thousand votes so (in her mind) the liberals wouldn't know how much to steal. I cannot personally think of any other plausible scenario in which the vote is legitimate, but still consistent with reasonable facts. The caveat with this scenario is that if this was the case, it would be much simpler and more plausible for this to be reported on election night.

2. Fraud exists on a much larger scale than just the County Clerk. Either the voting machine code is suspect, or several of the precinct-level officials are involved as well. It's impossible that any fraud is Ms. Nickolaus's doing alone, as the county-level canvass ensures that her spreadsheets agree with precinct-level data. What had to be done if fraud exists would be to disperse Brookfield's votes throughout the other municipalities, then set the city's results to 0 to have a legitimate excuse (and fool the Dem observer.)

In such a case, IF we assume fraud existed (tenuous assumption, of course), it's extremely unlikely that this was an isolated incident, but rather something that the infrastructure existed for (you don't just get people together to commit election fraud over one night. It has to be planned over time.) This would also explain why they took the risk - because they were afraid of being caught if they had manipulated the county results already on election night (and would explain the much-higher-than-reported turnout), with the inevitable recount looming, and sought to provide a buffer large enough so that it would not be needed.

However, this scenario also has major caveats - holding together such a conspiracy would be difficult indeed, and also, again, it would be sheer incompetence if moving outside the 0.5% margin was their goal, as the 7500 votes almost exactly do so (and the needle can still shift either way - my analogy of trying to steal an election so you win by 10 votes. Possible, but why?) And finally and most unlikely, people who didn't vote would be recorded as doing so in the databases - something that would be found before long.

In short, something fishy seems likely to be going on. I'm guessing paranoia much more likely than fraud, but who knows?


http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/8669/analysis-of-the-waukesha-found-ballots

We Don't Need to Shut Down the Government: Tax the Wealthy and Deadbeat Corporations to Close Budget Gaps

By Chuck Collins
Posted on April 7, 2011, Printed on April 8, 2011

Before any government shutdown–or drastic state and federal budget cuts –we should reverse huge tax cuts for the wealthy and deadbeat corporations.

When you hear politicians lament that “we’re broke,” consider this fact: If corporations and households with $1 million income paid at the same levels they did in 1961, the Treasury would collect an additional $716 billion a year – or $7 trillion over a decade.

Our communities are facing mammoth state and federal budget cuts because Congress has, in large part, failed to sufficiently tax America's millionaires and billionaires or prevent aggressive tax avoidance by multinational companies. The rest of us are paying to pick up the slack in budget cuts and future taxes.

There are two primary explanations behind our current budget “squeeze.” First, income and wealth have become extremely concentrated in the hands of the super-rich. The richest 1 percent of households own over 35.6 percent of all private wealth, approximately $20 trillion. The number of households with incomes exceeding $1 million has grown from 15,753 in 1961 to 361,000 today, adjusted for inflation. Meanwhile the middle-class standard of living is collapsing and poverty rates are at a 15-year high.

Second, we’ve dramatically reduced taxes on the super-rich and global corporations. A new report by the Institute for Policy Studies, “Unnecessary Austerity, Unnecessary Shutdown” (which I coauthored), chronicles 50 years of tax shifts off of the wealthy and multinational corporations onto middle-class taxpayers and small businesses. The report’s finding include:

  • Households with incomes over $1 million in 1961 paid an average 43.1 percent of their incomes in federal income taxes. Today, households with $1 million income pay 23.1 percent, almost half as much, adjusting for inflation.
  • If households with income over $1 million today paid their federal income taxes at the same rate that comparable households paid taxes in 1961, we would this year raise an additional $231 billion.
  • If U.S. corporations paid at the same effective tax rate that they paid in 1961, the additional tax revenue would total $485 billion.
  • In 1961, small business owners and individuals paid twice as much in federal income taxes as large corporations. By 2011, small business owners and individuals will be paying nearly five times in taxes what corporations pay.


Congress and special interest lobbyists have made mincemeat of our tax code, losing hundreds of billions in revenue. Worse, lawmakers have averted their eyes as corporate lobbyists drill new tax loopholes and extract new corporate welfare subsidies.

That’s how a profitable company like General Electric aggressively avoids taxes. Since 2006, General Electric has reported over $26 billion in profits, yet paid not one penny in U.S. taxes.

Other huge global companies such as Verizon, Boeing, ExxonMobil, and Federal Express also pay no or very low taxes. These artful tax dodgers use accounting gymnastics to move money to overseas tax havens like the Cayman Islands or Ireland. They pretend to earn their profits offshore and then report their paper losses here in the United States—reducing their responsibility to Uncle Sam.

The “Unnecessary Austerity” report identifies over $4 trillion in potential revenue over the next decade. Closing offshore tax havens could generate an estimated $100 billion a year. Adding new top tax brackets for millionaires could generate another $60-80 billion. Instituting a financial transaction tax could generate $150 billion a year.

This month is the first salvo in a multi-year battle over the role of government and the quality of our lives. At each step, we’ll need to remind lawmakers to reverse irresponsible tax breaks before budget cuts and shutdown theatrics.

Before we lay off another worker, we should heed the message from US Uncut, the feisty direct action movement emerging in different communities around the country: “Before you cut, make the tax dodgers pay up.”


Chuck Collins is a senior scholar at the Institute for Policy Studies and chair of the Working Group on Extreme Inequality, an emerging coalition of religious, business, labor and civic groups concerned about the wealth gap. He is coauthor with Bill Gates Sr. of Wealth and Our Commonwealth: Why America Should Tax Accumulated Fortunes.


http://www.alternet.org/module/printversion/150550